Well, after spilling nearly 9500 words just talking about the trade value of pitchers across two columns, it's time to dive into position players. Unlike most trade value columns, we're splitting pitchers and position players because they're valued differently and have such different functions. If you're unfamiliar with the guidelines for this column, here they are, reprinted from Part One of the pitchers' version:
Friday, October 4, 2013
Thursday, October 3, 2013
MLB Trade Value: Pitchers (Part 2)
Yesterday we covered honorable mention pitchers and the guys ranked 30-16. Today we move on to the fifteen pitchers with the highest trade value.
15) Justin Verlander
Before you get indignant and angry with me, hear me out. Verlander is already 30 years old, and currently signed to the longest and most expensive contract of any pitcher in baseball ($160 million for the next six years, plus a $22 million vesting option for 2020). That's a lot of money for anyone, let alone someone who's starting to show some cracks in the armor. Verlander's walk rate is at its highest since his outlier 2008 season, and his .317 BABIP is almost a career high. That may be due to the fact that despite his four outstanding pitches, his fastball velocity has dropped to its lowest level (93.7) since, well, 2008. He's still striking out as many batters as usual and keeping the ball in the yard, but seems to have become a touch more hittable this year. Perhaps leading the league in innings pitched three of the last four years has worn him down a little (total innings from 2009-12; 953.2, plus another 48.2 over the last two postseasons). It could just be a minor blip, and Verlander could make me look pretty stupid for sticking him way down here. But let's just be safe. And hey, even in a down year, Verlander is still worth 4.8 fWAR, meaning he's still an All-Star caliber pitcher.
Before you get indignant and angry with me, hear me out. Verlander is already 30 years old, and currently signed to the longest and most expensive contract of any pitcher in baseball ($160 million for the next six years, plus a $22 million vesting option for 2020). That's a lot of money for anyone, let alone someone who's starting to show some cracks in the armor. Verlander's walk rate is at its highest since his outlier 2008 season, and his .317 BABIP is almost a career high. That may be due to the fact that despite his four outstanding pitches, his fastball velocity has dropped to its lowest level (93.7) since, well, 2008. He's still striking out as many batters as usual and keeping the ball in the yard, but seems to have become a touch more hittable this year. Perhaps leading the league in innings pitched three of the last four years has worn him down a little (total innings from 2009-12; 953.2, plus another 48.2 over the last two postseasons). It could just be a minor blip, and Verlander could make me look pretty stupid for sticking him way down here. But let's just be safe. And hey, even in a down year, Verlander is still worth 4.8 fWAR, meaning he's still an All-Star caliber pitcher.
Wednesday, October 2, 2013
MLB Trade Value: Pitchers (Part 1)
With October (the greatest month of the sports calendar) upon us, I thought that I would give you a four-part column
about the highest trade values in baseball. Sure, this is something that you
can get your fill of at Grantland or Fangraphs, but everyone’s take is going to
be different, and this column will make one important distinction that
differentiates it somewhat from the more popular trade value lists out there.
Thursday, August 8, 2013
Fundamental Baseball
In yesterday's Washington Post, columnist Thomas Boswell skewered the Nationals' poor quality of play throughout the season, writing about several ways in which the team has played below its talent level thanks to some very bad fundamental baseball. Boswell is spot on with many of his observations, although he left out some components that could very well use a more thorough examination. Let's break down what he identified as the main issues and analyze some things he may have left out.
Thursday, July 11, 2013
National League Mid-Season Review
Well, we covered the American League in this space earlier today, so it's time to do a review of the National League before the break for the Midsummer Classic. Is the National League starting to overtake the American? After years of dominance in interleague play and at the All-Star game, the senior circuit is starting to close the gap, and has been producing more young talent, particularly over the past year-plus. And that has shaken things up in the National League, too. Just over halfway through the season, the Pittsburgh Pirates have the second-best record in the league, the defending champion Giants are falling apart at the seams, and the consensus choice for best team in the league has been incredibly mediocre. But not everything has changed; the Marlins are still terrible. So who and what has been the best of the National League?
American League Mid-season Review
The All-Star break begins Monday, and just as everyone expected in March, the team with the best record in the American League is...Boston? To be sure, there were plenty of people who felt that the Red Sox would benefit from some decent mid-level veteran signings and a change in leadership from last year's Bobby Valentine disaster.* And here they are, 56-37 through July 10th, enjoying (among other things) a bounce-back year from Jacoby Ellsbury (minus the power), strong pitching from one-time lemon John Lackey (a 2.80 ERA and 3.16 xFIP in nearly 100 innings this year), and David Ortiz raking at age 37 (.331/.412/.636 with 19 bombs), which encouraged the execrable Dan Shaughnessy to accuse him of using steroids with zero evidence. Over in the Central, Detroit leads as expected, but not by nearly as much (50-40, 3.5 games up on Cleveland) as might be expected from a team boasting SIX All-Stars (to be fair, all of them are deserving apart from Torii Hunter). And in the West, relatively star-less Oakland is 54-38, riding an ageless Bartolo Colon (a 2.69 ERA and 4.06 xFIP in 120 innings at age 40 while throwing almost nothing but fastballs) and a cast of relative unknowns to a comfortable cushion over all of their western brethren save Texas. Without further ado, some awards and stories from the first half of the season.
Wednesday, June 19, 2013
What Matters for Game Seven
Wow. Last night’s Game Six
was one of the most entertaining basketball games I have ever watched. I’m not
going to lie; I was pulling for the Spurs, but regardless, I was riveted. The
game featured almost everything one could hope for: Tim Duncan playing like it
was 2003 and absolutely destroying Chris Bosh and the Birdman; Miami finally
coming up with a defensive scheme that was able to cool down Danny Green
(although he still got WIDE open twice); Kawhi Leonard continuing his breakout
as perhaps San Antonio’s most critical and versatile player; the Heat’s
three-point shooters coming to life; LeBron James having a monster fourth
quarter, particularly when Dwyane Wade was on the bench; Tony Parker’s
fourth-quarter heroics; and the best three-point shooter in NBA history nailing
the tying basket with just seconds left in regulation. And there was so much
more!
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