Fourteen years after baseball returned to the District of Columbia for the first time since the 1970s, and after a quartet of first-round playoff heartbreaks over the preceding seven years, the most entertaining Washington Nationals team of them all broke through and won a World Series. They rode a dominant starting rotation and potent lineup while papering over the worst bullpen in the sport (principally by not using it), winning five elimination games along the way, four of them against the acclaimed two best teams in the sport, the Los Angeles Dodgers and Houston Astros. It was a remarkable season, and when the dust settles and the champagne and beer are washed out of the uniforms, where do the Nationals go from here?
There will be a strong temptation to bring back most of the team for another run, considering that this was no fluke championship but five-plus months of .667 baseball (a 108-win pace) after the brutal 19-31 start. That they played so well for so long despite a flammable bullpen that gave away leads at the drop of a hat is remarkable, and speaks to how talented this team is. But will the expense of keeping together a team whose best position player and best pitcher (going forward, at least) are likely to be free agents (pending an opt-out) be prohibitive for a team that was already sporting a $200-plus million payroll? And how much will payroll and contract decisions this winter, particularly those concerning Anthony Rendon and Stephen Strasburg, affect future payrolls for a team without a lot of cost-controlled young talent on the immediate horizon?
The Nationals were the oldest team in baseball this year, with an average age of 31, and that's after accounting for two of the youngest everyday players in the major leagues, outfielders Victor Robles and Juan Soto. President of baseball operations Mike Rizzo has done a masterful job keeping the Nationals competitive and relevant over the past eight years while gradually turning over much of the roster; it's easy to think of the 2019 Nationals and the 2012 Nationals as similar outfits, but only three players were on both rosters, and one of them (Kurt Suzuki) was not with the Nationals for most of the intervening six years. The other two, of course, are Ryan Zimmerman, the team's original draft pick after moving to Washington prior to the 2005 season, and Strasburg, the original franchise savior drafted with the first overall pick in 2009.
The question now is how do Rizzo and his brain trust plan to keep this team competitive in both the short and long term? There are a number of potentially thorny decisions to make, which we will examine here, particularly as the team does not have a deep farm system at present (the consequence of both drafting low for several years and making trades - such as the one for Adam Eaton - to improve the major league roster) from which to replenish themselves. Given Rizzo's track record in trades and deals, however, it would be foolish to bet against him, unless maybe one were to zero in specifically on his bullpen construction (long a franchise bugaboo).
Where to start? First, let's look at the contracts. On their current forty-man roster, the Nationals have the following for next year (all figures in millions of dollars, followed by the age that player will play at for the majority of 2020):
Under contract (5): Max Scherzer ($42.1, 35), Stephen Strasburg ($25, 31), Patrick Corbin ($19.42, 30), Anibal Sanchez ($7, 36), Kurt Suzuki ($6, 36)
Team options (4): Ryan Zimmerman ($18, 35), Yan Gomes ($9, 32), Adam Eaton ($9.5, 31), Sean Doolittle ($6.5, 33)
Arbitration cases (8): Trea Turner (1st year, 27), Michael A. Taylor (3rd, 29), Hunter Strickland (2nd, 31), Joe Ross (2nd, 27), Roenis Elias (2nd, 31), Javy Guerra (2nd, 34), Wilmer Difo (1st, 28), Aaron Barrett (2nd, 32)
Pre-arbitration (14): Juan Soto (21), Victor Robles (23), Andrew Stevenson (26), Wander Suero (28), Jake Noll (26), Carter Kieboom (22), Tanner Rainey (27), Austin Voth (28), Raudy Read (26), Erick Fedde (27), Adrian Sanchez (29), Kyle McGowin (28), James Bourque (26), Tres Barrera (25)
Free Agents (9): Anthony Rendon (30), Fernando Rodney (43), Brian Dozier (33), Howie Kendrick (36), Asdrubal Cabrera (34), Gerardo Parra (33), Daniel Hudson (33), Jeremy Hellickson (33), Matt Adams (31)*
*The Nationals declined their half of Adams' $4 million mutual option on Friday.
Let's look at each of those groups in detail, shall we? Obviously, the elephant in the room in the first category is "will Strasburg opt out of the remaining four years and $100 million on his contract?" The bet here is yes, because he can probably double that (or more) on the open market, fresh off a season in which he should finish in the top three for the Cy Young and became the first pitcher to go 5-0 in a single postseason (as much as pitcher wins matter, that is), winning World Series MVP along the way and cementing a reputation as a big-game pitcher. Still, even if he opts out, I expect the Nationals to re-sign him. He likes Washington, is comfortable there, and this season especially appeared to enjoy himself fully for maybe the first time. He signed an extension to skip free agency once already, has moved his family to the Washington area entirely (he sold his San Diego house last winter), and given the history between player and team (and agent, for that matter), I expect it to work out for all parties.
The options are tougher to predict in two of the four cases. Doolittle and Eaton should have their options picked up immediately. Doolittle was for several months the only reliable pitcher out of the bullpen until overwork broke him down for a few weeks, and $6.5 million is nothing for an effective closer on a good team. Eaton was roughly league-average this year, but is an important weapon in the Nats' balanced lineup, and again, the price is right. Zimmerman wants to stay with the only franchise he has ever known, but I think everybody involved has all but admitted that the Nats are not going to pay $18 million for a part-time first baseman. He will stay, but probably on something like a two-year deal for the same amount of money or maybe even less. When healthy, he can still hit, but he's played one full season in the past six, and has admitted that it takes him three hours just to get physically prepared to play these days. Gomes' option thus becomes the biggest question mark of the four. He struggled mightily in the first half, but his bat warmed up after the All-Star break and he is a stronger defensive catcher than Suzuki. What will make this decision is whether or not Rizzo and his team feel that either Read (.275/.317/.546 at AAA Fresno) or Barrera (.249/.323/.381 at AA Harrisburg) is ready to spend most of a season on the major league roster. Even if they decide that one of the young catchers can move up, they could still pick up Gomes' option and look to trade him or Suzuki for a little more roster flexibility.
Of the eight arbitration cases, I would guess that as many as four (Taylor, Strickland, Guerra, and Barrett) are potential non-tender candidates. Difo would be another possibility but for the fact that he's cheap, can capably play three infield positions, and the team is losing both of their second basemen to free agency and will need insurance in case Carter Kieboom struggles next year in the majors. I am a fan of Michael A. I really am. But he has proven pretty definitively over the past few years that he needs regular playing time to succeed, and with three outfielders firmly ahead of him on the depth chart, I just don't know where he's going to get that time. Everyone thinks of him as young, because he looks like he's twelve years old, but he will turn twenty-nine at the end of spring training, and at this point probably is what he is; an excellent defensive outfielder with some pop and good speed who will strike out 35-40 percent of the time. It might still be possible to pry a live arm from a rebuilding team for his services to replenish the bullpen, but a team that will already be flirting with the luxury tax is unlikely to pay $4-$5 million for a guy who spent most of the past season in Harrisburg. One way or another, I think his time in the Nationals organization probably has come to an end. Barrett has a fantastic story, working his way through four years of injuries and rehab to make it back to the major league level when rosters expanded this September. There's a very good chance that the team keeps him, not entirely for sentimental reasons, but not entirely NOT for sentimental reasons. Strickland has a live arm that can touch triple digits, but he also throws the ball very straight, which led Washington Post columnist Barry Svrluga to opine "Strickland gives up the most majestic home runs." He's never struck out as many guys as someone with that heat should, and would not be difficult to replace. Guerra is the kind of unremarkable reliever you can find at the back of any bullpen.
On to the free agents, some of whom we can dispense with quickly. Rodney is likely gone, either to another team or to retirement. There's a chance that one of Cabrera or Dozier returns on a one-year deal as Kieboom insurance, with the understanding of a likely trade if the Nats' top prospect rakes (he did hit .303/.409/.493 as a 21-year-old in Fresno this year), but both of them are likely gone as well (I would peg Cabrera as the one more likely to return thanks to his positional versatility and switch-hitting - he could theoretically supplant Adams as the lefty-hitting first baseman in addition to backing up second and third adequately enough and faking shortstop only if absolutely necessary). Hellickson may come back on a minor-league deal to provide back-end rotation depth as the sixth or seventh starter. Parra is an ideal fourth outfielder, capable of playing all three spots defensively and obviously a great clubhouse guy, but from a business perspective the Nats already have a younger left-handed fourth outfielder in Stevenson, so it's 50-50 if he comes back or not. No player meant more emotionally to the team, but it will depend on what kind of money he is looking for. If he's okay with making $2 million or so to serve as a bench spark, he could have the Nats faithful singing "Baby Shark" once again. Adams unfortunately had his worst year at the plate since an injury-shortened 2015 in St. Louis; he hit twenty home runs, but a .226/.276/.426 slash line is unacceptable from the strong side of your first baseman platoon. As stated above, Cabrera should be able to top that and give the team more flexible options in the field, although he is extraordinarily unlikely to replicate his hair-on-fire .323/.404/.565 38-game stint to close out the 2019 season in his return to South Capitol Street. The best external option in free agency for a lefty-hitting first baseman is probably Eric Thames, assuming Milwaukee declines his $7.5 million option.
After his strong (and vitally necessary) stretch run post-trade, I think that the Nationals are going to try and keep Daniel Hudson in the fold. Even if he reverts to something closer to the 4.00-ERA pitcher he was from 2015-18, that's still a fair sight better than just about anyone the Nats threw out there in 2019 save Doolittle. He also happens to be from Virginia Beach, which means Washington is closer to home than anywhere else and has to be an attractive potential destination for a guy who didn't know if he would have a job last winter. Howie Kendrick wound up being a steal at $4 million this season, hitting a blistering .344/.395/.572 in 370 plate appearances, winning NLCS MVP, and swatting what turned out to be series-winning home runs in two OTHER rounds. The man can't play every day, but he is a professional hitter (as well as a major clubhouse plus), and if you can keep him for a year or two more at something like $6-$7 million per year, I think you have to do it.
All of which brings us to Rendon. Of course the Nationals are going to try and sign him, although it will take more than the seven-year, $210-ish million offer they gave him at the close of the regular season. Rendon is going to finish in the top three of the NL MVP voting and is one of the best third basemen in baseball; he will probably be able to get something in the neighborhood of $35-$40 million per year on the open market. I am curious to see if he would take fewer years (say, six) at a higher average annual value, possibly with some of that back-loaded; assuming a Strasburg opt-out, the Nats have exactly one guaranteed contract on their roster (Corbin) that runs past 2021, so future payroll flexibility is wide open.*
*Although future payroll decisions will be made going forward with an eye toward backing up the truck for Soto, whose top ten player comps through his age 20 season are the following: Tony Conigliaro, Mickey Mantle, Frank Robinson, Bryce Harper, Mike Trout, Ken Griffey Jr., Mel Ott, Vada Pinson, Al Kaline, and Cesar Cedeno. That's five Hall of Famers, one future unanimous choice, the youngest unanimous MVP in history, two underrated stars who each accumulated 50+ WAR in their careers, and the most tragic career-shortening freak injury in baseball history.👀👀👀
I would think that, all things (read: money) being more or less equal, Rendon would prefer to stay in Washington. He is famously spotlight-averse, and it would be hard to go to a new city for roughly a quarter billion dollars and NOT have an intense spotlight trained on you. A couple of potential exceptions include Anaheim (where Mike Trout casts a long shadow)...and Atlanta (where Ronald Acuña Jr. is positioned to be the face of the franchise). I can see a Washington offer of 6/$240 or 7/$245, with something like a $20-$25 million salary for the next year or two and the rest bunched together in the last four or five years (much like Scherzer is making $42 million per year this year and the next two in a seven-year, $210 million overall deal) being enough to trump slightly more money or an extra year from Anaheim, Atlanta, or any other potential suitor (Philly? Texas? The White Sox or Mets?).
After writing up top about how Rizzo is generally aggressive in turning over the roster for the Nationals, I have just proposed a scenario whereby all they would lose this winter are a couple of free agents and perhaps a couple more non-tenders in arbitration, almost all of them from the back end of the roster. But for this particular team that plan makes sense. Again, they played at a 108-win pace for five-plus months (including the playoffs), upsetting the two best teams in the sport and absolutely throttling the St. Louis Cardinals in an emphatic NLCS sweep, and apart from Kieboom there are no obvious prospects ready to make big contributions in 2020. Their only other top 100 prospect, shortstop Luis Garcia, won't turn 20 until May and is probably another year or more away. Their closest pitching prospect, Sterling Sharp, is probably a back-end rotation type who might break into the majors in 2020 but is unlikely to have a big impact. Therefore, the argument for keeping the band together is very strong.
The weak spot in that band is still the bullpen, however, and even if the Nationals manage to retain Rendon and Strasburg, they will have to find some answers to shore up their worst-in-the-league relief corps. Let's say, for the sake of argument, that the Nationals will be looking to replace four pitchers on the forty-man roster: Strickland, Hellickson, Guerra, and Rodney. Hellickson is a starter, sure, but the Nationals can work out a fifth starter between the trio of Ross, Fedde, and Voth, so they can go into the hot stove season worrying less about shoring up the back of the rotation and more about fortifying the 'pen.*
*It might feel like I'm piling on, but it is impossible to overstate how bad the bullpen was in 2019. They blew 29 save opportunities! I know the save is a generally terrible statistic, but Nats relievers blew 42% of those chances in 2019, almost three times worse than the historical average across baseball (a little under 15% from the seventh inning on).
Assuming a seven-man bullpen (generally what teams carry during the regular season), the following pitchers should have secure spots: Doolittle, Hudson, Elias (he didn't do much in Washington because he hurt himself trying to beat out a grounder in his first appearance as a National, but he's the only other lefty besides Doolittle), and Rainey. That leaves Suero, McGowin, Barrett, and Bourque on the forty-man to fight for the last three spots along with whomever else Washington might sign or trade for. The free agent market is not awe-inspiring as relievers go. Aroldis Chapman and Kenley Jansen are the most talented options available if either opts out of the remaining two years on their contracts, but Jansen would struggle to top 2/$38 on the open market after a rough 2019 and I am dead certain that the Nationals, an organization that values high character, would want no part of Chapman in their clubhouse. After that, you're looking at Will Harris, Joe Smith, Collin McHugh, Drew Pomeranz, and Dellin Betances, among others.
Betances is the most intriguing name by far, a four-time All-Star with a career 14.6 K/9 rate who turns 32 in late March...and who missed essentially all of 2019 with a shoulder injury before returning in September and tearing his Achilles in his first appearance, which could make him a great buy-low candidate. The Nats have some recent experience with guys rehabbing from that injury (hello, Howie Kendrick!), and a strikeout weapon like Betances at the back of the bullpen (if healthy) would be a seismic upgrade over the guys who pitched in 2019. Of course, it was just last year that the Nationals bought low on a formerly elite reliever coming off a major injury, and suffice to say, the Trevor Rosenthal experiment did NOT work out. Betances is better than Rosenthal, and the injuries were very different, but it would be acceptable if the Nats are leery of one of the biggest men in baseball history (Betances checks in at 6'8" and 265 pounds) coming back at full strength so soon from said torn Achilles, albeit in his left (stride) leg rather than his right (push) leg, not to mention the original shoulder issue. Still, a team with such a historically bad bullpen has to at least kick the tires on the first reliever to strike out 100 batters or more in five consecutive seasons (no, not even Chapman, Jansen, or Craig Kimbrel has ever managed to do that).
Beyond a potentially healthy Betances, most of the improvements that the Nationals can make (again, assuming they keep Rendon and Strasburg) are on the margins. But how feasible is all of this payroll-wise? Even though they have minimal financial commitments beyond the 2021 season, keeping both free agent stars would almost certainly mean paying $85-$90 million to three players for multiple years. That's before considering the potential future implications of a budding superstar like Soto, who will be eligible for arbitration for the first time after 2021 and eligible for free agency after 2024. Something will have to give somewhere, if not this winter than over one of the next two. Given that the Nats' current top two prospects are both middle infielders (Kieboom and Garcia, the organization's only consensus top 100 prospects), that something might be Trea Turner's long-term future with the Nationals. Turner will be a free agent after the 2022 season, so if the Lerners pay up for both Strasburg and Rendon this winter, watch closely what happens with him a year from now. As an above-average defensive shortstop with twenty-homer power and elite speed, two years of team control would bring back a decent haul to replenish the cost-controlled talent for Washington. Rizzo is always thinking multiple years ahead; witness the Eaton trade two years before Bryce Harper's free agency, or the trade for Turner himself (and Joe Ross) when Ian Desmond was a year away from becoming a free agent. And Turner is the only Washington regular who is still in his mid-twenties (he's 26) and who will probably become expensive enough in the near term that the team will have to at least think about moving him.
Anyway, those are several of the moving parts that the Rizzo and the Lerner family will have to consider as they plan a defense of Washington's first baseball title in over 70 years (the 1948 Homestead Grays) and first MLB championship in almost a century. With so many roster decisions coming this hot stove season, expect the Nationals to be aggressive and interesting over the winter, and for them to break camp in Florida with another talented team capable of winning the Commissioner's Trophy.
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